Fire brigade captain Kingsley Searle’s home was inundated by 450 millimetres of water during major flooding in 2021.
It was the first time the floodwaters had breached, after nearly 40 years living on Port Macquarie’s North Shore.
“We virtually considered ourselves out of the flood area, although the map showed us being on the edge. But we're now well and truly flood-prone,” Searle told the Mid North Coaster.
During the flood Searle’s community, connected to Port Macquarie by ferry, was cut off for more than a week.
The study: Experiences like Searle’s have led to the development of a council-led Hastings River flood study, the first in 20 years.
The study investigates flood behaviour across the catchment, using surveys, rainfall data, topographic mapping and computer modelling.
It estimates where floodwater may go, how quickly it may move, and which areas may be affected during flood events.
The why: Council’s Community infrastructure director, Blayne West, said the council was prompted to update the study after major flooding in 2021 far exceeded existing modelling.
Previously unmapped areas have been included in the 2026 version, including upstream of Wauchope and Telegraph Point.
Data from major floods in 2013, 2021 and 2025 have informed the update.
Predicting floodwater: The study predicts where water might reach in various scenarios, including a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) - the largest flood that could realistically occur under extreme conditions.
According to the modelling, West said around 400-500 more properties are now considered at risk from a PMF than in 2006.
“We really encourage people to go online … have a look at the mapping, and see if it has changed on your specific property,” she told the Mid North Coaster.
What it means: Being within a PMF zone can guide what or how you build on your property, and can impact insurance premiums.
If the study is adopted, a Flood Risk Management Study and Plan will be developed, exploring the mitigation measures available to the community.
Answers needed: As a key player in the coordination of local disaster responses, Searle said the study must result in concrete actions to improve community resilience.
“What can we put in place that helps residents get through this? How can we bulletproof houses against the impact of floods?” he said.
Local knowledge: Port Macquarie MP Robert Dwyer called on residents to provide feedback on the study, and voice concerns if they have them, as the mapping will help communities better prepare for future events.
“It’s about trying to prevent that look on people's faces when they can do nothing about it, when they know the flood's coming, and know the impact will be devastating,” he told the Mid North Coaster.
Dwyer is no stranger to major floods, having delivered aid to isolated North Shore residents in the aftermath of the 2025 floods.
In 2021, as GM of the Laurieton United Services Club, Dwyer sheltered 465 people in the venue for four nights, along with their dogs, cats, birds, lizards and a cow.
What now: To have your say, and view the mapping, visit here.